Tricia Friedman

LAMP: A Tool for Enhancing Futures Literacy

A tool for Futurists

LAMP Thinking Tool: A Futures Literacy Framework for Questioning Assumptions
Thinking Tool

LAMP: A Futures Literacy Tool for Questioning Assumptions

LAMP is a futures literacy thinking tool that helps people question assumptions, examine bias, and explore multiple possible futures.

Printable version Workshops
Step 1 of 4 L — Liked or Likely?
L

Liked or Likely?

Ask whether desire is quietly posing as evidence.

Core question Notice the pull of the preferred outcome
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Do I believe this because it is likely, or because it is the outcome I want?
Play with your certainty Pressure test why this feels true
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What two drivers are driving the belief to be likely?
What underpins this The bias underneath
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This points to motivated reasoning. We humans tend to give extra weight to conclusions we want to be true and discount evidence that threatens those conclusions.
Step 2 of 4 A — Assumed
A

Assumed

Surface what feels obvious only because it feels familiar.

Core question Challenge the self-evident
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What am I treating as obvious that might not actually be true?
Play with your certainty Borrow an outsider’s eyes
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What would someone outside my role or field question immediately?
What underpins this The bias underneath
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We humans often treat familiar explanations as self-evident because they come to mind easily, not because they have been tested.
Step 3 of 4 M — Missing
M

Missing

Assume your angle of view leaves something out.

Core question Look for the blind spot
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What about my perspective guarantees I am missing something here?
Play with your certainty Invite the hardest question
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What would a skeptic ask that I have not asked?
What underpins this The bias underneath
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We humans naturally search for supporting evidence and often assume our own view is less biased than other people’s.
Step 4 of 4 P — Possible
P

Possible

Stretch beyond the future your experience makes easiest to imagine.

Core question Name the hard-to-picture possibility
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What possibility is hardest for me to picture right now?
Play with your certainty Notice what feels implausible only because it feels unfamiliar
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What seems unlikely to me because it falls outside my experience?
What underpins this The bias underneath
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This pushes against status quo bias. People tend to start from the present, assume continuity, and underestimate how different the future could be.

LAMP helps humans confront four very common habits of mind:

  • wanting something and mistaking that for evidence
  • treating familiar beliefs as facts
  • searching for support instead of challenge
  • assuming the future will mostly resemble the present
Futures literacy

LAMP is a futures literacy tool for people who want to interrupt their own certainty.

Futures literacy is not about getting the future right. It is about noticing how your hopes, habits, and hidden assumptions shape what you think is possible.

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Name what feels obvious

Futures thinking starts by questioning the story that already feels settled, natural, or beyond debate.

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Get suspicious of your favorite answer

LAMP helps separate what is likely from what is comforting, familiar, or conveniently aligned with what you want.

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Make room for other futures

Futures literacy asks us to imagine beyond the default and notice what we keep ruling out too early.

A Futures Literacy Activity Using LAMP

LAMP can be used as a short futures literacy activity that helps people question assumptions, notice bias, and explore multiple possible futures.

How to Use the LAMP Thinking Tool

Step 1
Choose a claim, prediction, or belief about the future.
Step 2
Move through the four LAMP prompts one at a time.
Step 3
Pause after each prompt and discuss what new questions emerge.
Step 4
Notice how your assumptions shift as new possibilities appear.

Example Reflection Prompts

Liked or Likely
What future outcome do we want to happen — and what evidence actually supports it?
Assumed
What belief about the future are we treating as obvious?
Missing
What perspectives or evidence might we be overlooking?
Possible
What future possibility feels hardest to imagine right now?

Instead of predicting the future, the goal is to expand the range of futures people are able to consider.

Want to explore this thinking with a group?

LAMP is one of several thinking tools I use in workshops about futures literacy, bias awareness, and reflective practice.

Explore workshops